In American politics there are so-called reasoning that mark their positions on certain issues and countries. One of the oldest, ” The Mature Fruit” , which guides its relationship with Cuba. Its author was the Secretary of State John Quincy Adams, in 1823, with the aim of avoiding that Spain gave the coveted Island to the English to him in case of a conflict with the USA.
The famous Monroe Doctrine was inspired by it, as well as the Joint Resolution, the Platt Amendment and all hostile policy towards the Cuban Revolution, not so much by Socialist as to crown the independence cycle and to take control of the Gulf Key without any restrictions.
That is why there is no truce with the island even though the Cold War has ended, nor receives the commercial treatment granted to Vietnam and China, past and present enemies of the Empire and ruled by communist parties long before Cuba.
That a liberal and intelligent president like Obama – remember the smart power – tried to apply this corollary by means of a warm approach, after half a century of failed policies of force, could not be the way to follow by an administration as crazy as the present one that, in just half a year, has reminded Reagan and little Bush as smart statesmen.
These days we are witnessing the novel Sonic Attacks Show that, although it seems to come out of a science fiction film or the saga of Agent 007, has already been a pretext for the expulsion of Cuban diplomats and the clipping of embassy personnel in Havana . The thing is complicated quickly because Trump has political debts with the new ace of the attitude towards Cuba and Latin America: Marcos Rubio, sworn enemy of Cuba and Venezuela. It would seem that winter is approaching.
However, the pretext seems very weak to me and what has been achieved in two and a half years of relations can hardly be thrown overboard despite the wishes of the histrionic president and his new Floridian ally. Honestly, I do not find that the licenses granted by Obama to authorize trips to Cuba, those granted to airlines and agreements between governmental institutions, to mention only a few edges of the incipient relationships, can be erased.
On the other hand, there are several lobbies in the US that also want to get closer to Cuba for economic purposes – agriculturists, merchants and their political representatives; social; scientists and even military and security officials, who should weigh more in the balance of the State Department than the president’s political debts with the Hawks of Florida.
However, as Trump has demonstrated, his internal and external policy is often harsh and aggressive to the extreme and we must be prepared for the worst, even if it is for a trivial matter such as these days.
At least this uncertainty – which I hope is fleeting – must serve to reinforce us in the belief that what has to be done for the good of Cuba must first of all come out of transformations within the Cuban society that encourage the increase of the production and the productivity of the work and that guarantee the well-being of the people from the talent and the contribution of the individuals and the groups, without dreaming so much with the supposed manna that will fall to us of the sky the day that the blockade is finished and foreign investors flood us with capital, markets and cutting edge technologies.
If, in almost two centuries of application of La Madra Madura, no president has been able to swallow it up – although they were ready – this new Duce, with its uncertain uncertainties, can hardly do so against the interests and aspirations of the Cuban people on both sides , broad economic and political sectors of the US itself and almost the entire international community.